GM. This is Dumb Money Daily — the support group your portfolio didn't know it needed.
SpaceX went public yesterday. It closed up 19%. One person shorted it on the open because "IPOs always fade." One person bought it at the intraday high of $176.
They are both in today's issue.
Combined damage: $315,000. Here's what we've got today:
🏆 Loss of the Day — Shorted SpaceX on IPO day. "IPOs always fade." It hit $176.: $168,100
💀 Casualty #1 — Bought Roku puts before earnings. Roku gapped up 20%.: $47,300
💀 Casualty #2 — 60x BTC long opened right before the BOJ rate hike scare.: $61,200
💀 Casualty #3 — Bought SpaceX at the intraday high of $176. Closed at $161.: $38,400
📊 Today by the Numbers — The stats that make your portfolio look responsible
🍩 Copium for the Road — The best comments from today's wreckage
🤣 Dumb Memes — Because laughter is free (unlike these trades)
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| TODAY’S DAMAGE REPORT 📊 | |||||||||
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LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆
Every day we crown one person who made the single worst financial decision on the internet.
Today’s winner had a rule. A simple, clean rule about IPOs. The rule was wrong.
Here’s the setup.
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share. The most anticipated IPO in years. $2 trillion valuation. Elon Musk. Rockets.
u/fade_the_ipo_always had seen this pattern before. Big hype. Opening day pop. Then the fade. Happens every time.
His words: “IPOs always fade. It’s a statistical fact.”
So he shorted SPCX at the open. 9:32 a.m. $135 a share.
Here’s the thing. SpaceX is not a normal IPO. It holds 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Standard Chartered had just called the crypto bottom. Institutional investors had been waiting years for this listing.
The stock hit $176 by 11:45 a.m.
He was short SpaceX at $135. It hit $176 intraday. That is a 30% move against him in two hours.
He covered at $172. The damage: $168,100.
His post: “Okay. Some IPOs don’t fade.”
That is a $168,100 asterisk on a statistical fact.
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The top reply was eight words: “SpaceX has 18,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet.”
He replied: “I did not know that.”
That is the information that costs $168,100 to learn. It was in the IPO filing.
| 🧠 Why does Bitcoin matter for a rocket company? SpaceX’s IPO filing disclosed 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet as a strategic reserve — the same playbook as MicroStrategy. When Standard Chartered called the crypto bottom on June 12, institutional buyers who wanted both rocket exposure and Bitcoin exposure rushed in. The IPO wasn’t just a stock. It was leveraged rocket-plus-Bitcoin exposure in one ticker. Shorting it the morning after the crypto bottom call was a specific kind of unfortunate. |
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TODAY'S CASUALTIES 💀
Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these three gave it a real shot.
Let’s run through the tape.
Casualty #1: The Roku Put Buyer
Roku had been weak for months. u/puts_on_everything decided earnings would confirm the weakness.
He bought puts. Two weeks out. A clean $47,300 position.
Here’s the thing about Roku this quarter. They beat on every metric. Revenue up 18%. Ad revenue up 24%. Guidance raised.
The stock gapped up 20% before the market opened.
He was holding puts on a stock that gapped up 20% on earnings. Every single dollar was gone before 9:30 a.m.
His comment, posted at 8:47 a.m.: “I would like to not be in the options market anymore.”
That is a reasonable conclusion.
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Casualty #2: The 60x Bitcoin Long, Timed Perfectly Wrong
Standard Chartered called the crypto bottom on June 12. Bitcoin cycle low: $59K. Officially over.
u/btc_bottom_caller read the note. He agreed. He opened a 60x long on Bitcoin perpetuals.
This is where timing matters.
He opened the position at 2:14 p.m. on June 12.
At 3:07 p.m., news broke that the Bank of Japan was preparing a rate hike. The yen carry trade — a massive source of global risk liquidity — was under threat.
Bitcoin dropped 4.2% in 40 minutes.
At 60x leverage, that is a 252% move. There is no account left after a 252% move.
He agreed with Standard Chartered. He was probably right. He was also liquidated before the analysis had time to play out.
The damage: $61,200. The Standard Chartered call may still be correct. It does not help him.
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Casualty #3: Bought the Intraday High
This is the other side of the SpaceX trade.
While u/fade_the_ipo_always was getting squeezed on his short, someone else was watching the stock rip to $176 and deciding that was the entry point.
u/fomo_at_176 had been watching SPCX all morning. He had missed the open. He had watched it run from $135 to $176. He did not want to miss more.
He bought 217 shares at $176.11 at 11:53 a.m.
The stock closed at $161.11. That is where first-day IPO buyers ended the session.
He bought SpaceX at the exact intraday high, eleven minutes before it reversed.
The unrealized loss by close: $38,400. He is still holding.
His comment: “Day one volatility. Long-term hold.”
That is one way to frame buying the top.
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TODAY BY THE NUMBERS 📊
We track the data because the data is funnier than anything we could make up.
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Two people traded SpaceX today and both lost money. One shorted it at the open. One bought it at the top. The stock closed up 19% and somehow everyone was wrong.
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BITE-SIZED COPIUM FOR THE ROAD 🍩
The best part of any loss thread isn't the screenshot. It's the comments.
Here are today's greatest hits.
| • | “SpaceX has 18,000 Bitcoin. I did not know that.” It was in the IPO filing. The one that was public. — u/fade_the_ipo_always |
| • | “I would like to not be in the options market anymore.” The options market would also like a break from you. — u/puts_on_everything |
| • | “The bottom call might still be right.” It is. And you have no position left to benefit from it. Both things are true. — u/btc_bottom_caller |
| • | “SpaceX is going to Mars.” Mars is very far away and does not help your cost basis. — u/fomo_at_176 |
Translation: SpaceX had a great day. The four people in today's issue did not.
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DUMB MEMES 🤣
Every newsletter needs a meme section.
Ours just hits different when two people traded the same stock in opposite directions and both lost money.
u/fade_the_ipo_always discovers an edge case in his backtesting | |
u/fomo_at_176’s investing philosophy, formed in real time |
If you laughed, you read IPO filings.
If you winced, you’ve bought the intraday high of something.
See you tomorrow. SpaceX is still up 19% on the day. Two people are still down.
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