Someone Shorted Oil the Week a War Broke Out. Lost $70,000.

Since Feb 28th, the S&P has slid -4.1%.

But the people invested in the Patriot Income Plan (P.I.P.)...

They barely noticed.

While the world panicked over "World War III"

Their distributions kept arriving. On schedule. In full. Some have collected 15+ separate payouts during the three months of war.

And their portfolios? The average partnership inside P.I.P. has gained 7.2% during this conflict. The best performer rose 15.3%.

That's the difference between owning stocks and owning infrastructure.

Stocks trade on fear. Infrastructure collects fees on every molecule of oil and gas that moves through America, war or peace, boom or bust.

And that's exactly what P.I.P. is.

A way for you to own critical infrastructure that pays you whether America is at war or not.

With unit prices cooling from wartime highs, today may be the best entry point in months. The next P.I.P. payout is days away.

Enroll now, before it's issued.

P.S. Since 2020, the average partnership in P.I.P. has produced 20% avg. annual gains. That's in addition to the 10% yield. One investor already collects $4,800 a month. Another hasn't worked in years. Show me something better. I'll wait. [Enroll in P.I.P. →]

LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆

Every day we crown one person who made the worst financial decision on the internet.

Today's winner shorted oil during a war. Not a metaphorical war. An actual war with missiles.

Here's the setup. A trader on r/commodities saw Brent crude at $93 a barrel on September 2. His thesis: summer driving season ending, demand fading, war premium "overblown."

He posted a three-paragraph breakdown. Zero mention of Iran. Zero mention of the Strait of Hormuz. Zero mention of the Saudi refinery attacks that were already in the news.

He shorted 5 Brent crude contracts at $93.

Over the next eight days, the U.S. struck Iranian oil tankers. Iran launched missiles at U.S. warships. The Houthis hit Saudi refineries. Oil went from $93 to $108.

He was margin called at $107. Total loss: $70,000.

His post title: "Oil is mean-reverting. I was early."

Brother. You weren't early. You were short oil during a shooting war in the world's most important shipping lane. There is no mean reversion for missiles.

Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these two gave it a real shot.

Let's run through the tape.

There's a phrase that echoes through every options forum right before someone gets assigned. That phrase is "selling puts is free money."

Here's what u/theta_gang_rise_up did. He sold 50 put contracts on The Trade Desk at a $22 strike in late July. The stock was already down 52% on the year.

His thesis: the bottom was in. He collected $3.20 per share in premium. $16,000 in instant income.

One problem: The Trade Desk reported Q2 earnings on August 6. Revenue missed. Guidance missed. The stock dropped 24% after hours to $13.39.

His 50 puts were assigned. He now owned 5,000 shares of TTD at $22 each on a $13.39 stock.

Net loss after premium: $27,050.

He posted the assignment notice with the caption above. The irony is that theta gang's entire philosophy is about collecting small, consistent premiums. Not about waking up to a $27,050 hole.

This one hurts because the thesis actually made sense. On paper.

u/blue_sky_portfolio read every airline analyst report in August. Strong summer bookings. Record passenger numbers. 23 of 25 analysts rated UAL a Buy with a $161 price target.

He put $136,000 into United Airlines at $128 per share. His entire taxable brokerage account. One thing he didn't factor in: jet fuel.

Brent crude went from $93 to $108 in eight days. Jet fuel costs surged to nearly $180 per barrel. United Airlines is completely unhedged against fuel prices.

UAL dropped from $128 to $105. His $136,000 is now worth $111,562.

Unrealized loss: $24,438.

Here's the thing. The travel demand thesis was correct. Summer bookings were at record levels. But fuel costs eat 25% of an airline's operating expenses. When oil spikes 16% in a week, the math changes whether you read the analyst report or not.

The analyst target is still $161. The stock does not care about the analyst target.

We track the data because the data is funnier than anything we could make up.

The correlation between analyst consensus and portfolio destruction remains underexplored.

We've been tracking it all year. Every time 20+ analysts agree on a rating, the average retail trader who follows it is down 14% within 60 days. Not because the analysts are wrong. Because retail traders don't read past the price target.

See you tomorrow. The numbers will be different. The behavior won't be.