GM. This is Dumb Money Daily — rounding up the internet's biggest Ls so you don't make them yourself.
The Iran peace deal sent yields down and bonds up. One person had borrowed money to bet bonds would fall. The peace deal was the one thing he had not priced in.
He had priced in everything else.
Combined damage: $269,900. Here's what we've got today:
🏆 Loss of the Day — Borrowed to buy TLT puts. Peace deal news. Bonds rallied.: $143,600
💀 Casualty #1 — Shorted IBM on the analyst note. Analyst clarified. IBM recovered.: $52,400
💀 Casualty #2 — Paid $29,100 for a "yen carry trade arbitrage bot." It was a Telegram scam.: $29,100
💀 Casualty #3 — 30x JUP long to "buy the dip." Second dip arrived.: $44,800
📊 Today by the Numbers — The stats that make your portfolio look responsible
🍩 Copium for the Road — The best comments from today's wreckage
🤣 Dumb Memes — Because laughter is free (unlike these trades)
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| TODAY’S DAMAGE REPORT 📊 | |||||||||
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LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆
Every day we crown one person who made the single worst financial decision on the internet.
Today’s winner had a macro thesis. The thesis was correct for six months. Then one headline changed everything.
Here’s the setup.
Bonds have been under pressure all year. The Fed is edging toward a rate hike. Elevated inflation. Rising yields. TLT — the long-duration bond ETF — has been in a slow, grinding decline since January.
u/rates_go_brrr had been watching this for months. He had a thesis: the Fed hikes at the June 17 meeting, yields rise further, TLT falls. Clean, well-researched, directionally sound.
He bought puts on TLT. With borrowed money. A $143,600 position, fully leveraged.
Here’s what happened next.
On June 12, conflicting reports of an Iran peace deal surfaced. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil falls. If oil falls, inflation cools. If inflation cools, the Fed doesn’t hike.
Bond yields dropped 14 basis points. TLT rallied 2.8%.
His puts went from a thesis to a loss in the time it takes to read a news headline.
He was down $143,600 by the close. He still has the borrowed money to pay back.
His post: “I was right about the macro. I was not right about the Iran peace deal.”
That is the macro. The macro includes Iran.
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The top comment: “The macro always includes geopolitics. That is what macro means.”
He replied: “I am aware of that now.”
The borrowed money does not care.
| 🧠 WTF is TLT? TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — it tracks long-duration US government bonds. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and TLT falls. When rates fall or rate-hike fears ease, TLT rises. Buying puts on TLT is a bet that rates rise further. The Iran peace deal reduced inflation expectations, which reduced the likelihood of a Fed hike, which sent TLT up. The puts lost most of their value in an afternoon. The borrowed money remains at full value. |
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TODAY'S CASUALTIES 💀
Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these three gave it a real shot.
Let’s run through the tape.
Casualty #1: The IBM Short That Unshorted Itself
On June 9, a Piper Sandler analyst issued a cautious note on IBM regarding enterprise software spending. IBM fell 2.4% on the day.
u/ibm_is_toast read the note. He agreed with it. He shorted IBM the following morning.
One problem: on June 13, the same analyst issued a clarification. The caution was “sector-level,” not IBM-specific. IBM was, if anything, better positioned than peers.
IBM recovered 3.1% over two sessions. His short closed for a $52,400 loss.
He shorted a stock based on an analyst note. The analyst clarified the note two days later.
His comment: “Analyst notes should come with an expiration date.”
They do. It is called “the next note.”
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Casualty #2: The Yen Carry Trade Bot
This one is for anyone who has ever seen the phrase “arbitrage opportunity” in a Telegram message and felt their pulse quicken.
u/carry_trade_king found a bot. It was being sold in a private Telegram channel. The product: automated yen carry trade arbitrage. The pitch: exploit interest rate differentials between the US and Japan. Fully automated. Monthly fee: $3,900. Setup cost: $25,200.
Total commitment: $29,100.
For context: yen carry trades are real. Institutional investors have run them for decades. They do not charge $3,900 a month and live in a Telegram channel with a lion avatar.
He paid the setup fee. He paid the first month. The bot sent daily “arbitrage scans completed” messages.
On day 22, the bot sent a final message: “Position closed. Profits transferred.” Then the channel disappeared.
No profits were transferred. The $29,100 was.
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Casualty #3: JUP, 30x, the Second Dip
Jupiter (JUP) fell 13% on June 4 during the broader altcoin selloff. u/jup_to_the_moon saw a dip.
He bought the dip. 30x leveraged long perpetuals.
For context: JUP had fallen 13% in one day. The broader altcoin market was in a sustained downtrend. The “dip” was not a dip. It was a leg.
Legs have more legs.
JUP fell another 11% over the following three days. At 30x, that is a complete liquidation before the move was halfway over.
He called 13% down a dip. The dip was still dipping.
The damage: $44,800.
His post: “I caught the falling knife. With my face.”
That is an accurate description of what happened.
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TODAY BY THE NUMBERS 📊
We track the data because the data is funnier than anything we could make up.
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The macro always includes geopolitics. That is what u/rates_go_brrr learned. It cost $143,600 and a margin call on borrowed money.
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BITE-SIZED COPIUM FOR THE ROAD 🍩
The best part of any loss thread isn't the screenshot. It's the comments.
Here are today's greatest hits.
| • | “I was right about the macro.” Being right about the macro while being wrong about the outcome is just being wrong. — u/macro_was_right |
| • | “Analyst notes should come with an expiration date.” They do. It is called “the clarification.” — u/read_the_footnotes |
| • | “The lion avatar should have been a flag.” Lions are not licensed by any financial authority in any jurisdiction. — u/kyc_required |
| • | “I caught the falling knife with my face.” Technically that is not catching. — u/knife_catcher_anon |
Translation: everybody had a reason. The market didn't ask for one.
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DUMB MEMES 🤣
Every newsletter needs a meme section.
Ours just hits differently when you borrowed money to bet on something that a peace deal made wrong.
u/rates_go_brrr discovers that the macro includes everything | |
22 days of arbitrage scans, one final transfer, no lion |
If you laughed, you read macro reports.
If you winced, you’ve bought a dip that was still dipping.
See you tomorrow. The peace deal may or may not happen. The borrowed money is definitely still owed.
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