GM. This is Dumb Money , the support group your portfolio didn't know it needed.
Today's issue is brought to you by the American housing market, a token nobody had heard of three weeks ago, and a man who believed General Mills was a defensive play.
Spoiler: nothing was defended.
Here's what we've got today:
🏆 A home equity line for homebuilder stocks. The irony writes itself.
📉 Liquidity pool math. It's called "impermanent" loss. It was very permanent.
⚡ General Mills calls. Because nothing says conviction like betting on cereal.
🤣 Dumb memes from the trenches.
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| TODAY'S DAMAGE REPORT 📊 | |||||||||
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In his most recent interview with The Economist, Elon Musk said that because of AI "money will be irrelevant by the year 2036."
I can see that happening too.
AI is already displacing millions of jobs.
One report says 40% of all jobs could be automated within the next decade.
When that happens, the government will have no choice but to pay people some sort of Universal Basic Income.
But this could take 20 years to materialize
So while Musk tweets and Congress holds hearings, what are you supposed to do? Wait?
I don't think so.
But you don't have to. Universal Income already exists.
It's not funded by robots or AI. It's funded by America's oil and gas infrastructure, and it pays 10% a year, 42 times a year, to everyone who holds units.
It's called the Patriot Income Plan, or P.I.P. for short.
And this year it's expected to pay a record $53 billion in distributions.
Think of it as your own personal sovereign wealth fund, backed by the biggest energy producer on planet earth.
P.S. Since 2020, the average partnership in P.I.P. has produced 20% avg. annual gains. That's in addition to the 10% yield. One investor already collects $4,800 a month. Another hasn't worked in years. Show me something better. I'll wait. [Enroll in P.I.P. →]
LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆
Every day we crown one person who made the worst financial decision on the internet.
Today's winner made a bet so perfectly ironic it belongs in a museum.
Here's the setup. A guy on r/investing found KB Home, the homebuilder, trading at $76 and change.
His thesis was four words long. Housing always comes back.
He took out a home equity line of credit - $254,000 at 8.5% APR - and used the equity in his house to bet on a company that builds houses.
He bought 3,337 shares of KBH at an average price of $76.12.
Then the earnings started coming in. Q1: EPS down 65%. Revenue dropped 23%. He held.
Q2: EPS down 71%. Revenue down 27%. Missed consensus. He held again.
The stock ground from $76 to $52.52. Slowly. Over eight months.
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TOTAL RETURN -$78,741.00 ▼ $254,000.00 (-31.00%) All Time 1D 1W 1M 3M ALL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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For context: he's also paying 8.5% interest on the HELOC. That's another $21,590 a year on top of the $78,741 in unrealized losses.
Total damage: $100,331 and counting. The stock reports Q3 earnings today after the close. Analysts expect another 45% decline in EPS.
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| What's a HELOC? A home equity line of credit lets you borrow against the value of your home. You're turning your house into an ATM. If the investment goes bad, you still owe the bank - plus interest - and your home is the collateral. It is not a tool for stock speculation. |
Brother. Housing doesn't always come back. Sometimes it just keeps filing earnings reports, and the earnings reports keep getting worse.
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TODAY'S CASUALTIES 💀
Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these two gave it a real shot.
Let's run through the tape.
Casualty #1: The Liquidity Pool Mathematician
There are certain phrases in DeFi that sound smart until you understand what they actually mean. "Impermanent loss" is one of them.
Here's the thing. It's not impermanent. Not when the token drops 78%.
u/yield_hacker_88 deposited $94,400 into a liquidity pool. The pair was ETH and a protocol token called $PRISM.
The pitch was 340% APY. The pool had $2.1 million in total liquidity. It looked legitimate.
One problem: $PRISM's team announced a protocol pivot. They were abandoning the original roadmap. The token dropped 78% in six days.
The APY was still showing 340% on the dashboard when his position was worth half of what he put in.
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| What's impermanent loss? When you provide liquidity to a pool, you deposit two tokens in equal value. If one token's price drops, the pool automatically rebalances - selling your good token and buying more of the falling one. You end up with more of the worthless token and less of the good one. The word "impermanent" means the loss reverses if the price comes back. It rarely comes back. |
Translation: the interest rate on a burning building is technically still positive.
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Casualty #2: The Cereal Defense
u/value_deep_42 believed in General Mills. Not as a company that makes Cheerios. As a trade.
His thesis: consumer staples hold up in downturns. People always buy cereal.
He bought 80 GIS $42 call contracts expiring in October. Total premium: $28,640.
One problem: people do buy cereal. But Wall Street was looking at the margins. Organic sales down 3%. Adjusted EPS down 37% year over year.
GIS has been sliding for nine months. The calls needed a reversal in six weeks. It did not reverse.
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The stock is at $35.90. His $42 calls are worth approximately nothing.
Nobody lost money betting on cereal before. That's what makes this one special.
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DUMB MEMES 🤣
Every newsletter needs a meme section. Ours just hits different when you're reading it from a HELOC payment you can't make.
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| u/housing_always_recovers's 2026 investment thesis in emoji form |
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| the LP farmer re-entry cycle, as observed in the wild |
If you laughed, you're coping. If you didn't laugh, you're probably providing liquidity somewhere right now.
See you tomorrow. Same losses. Different people. Exact same mistakes.
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