GM. This is Dumb Money, the only financial newsletter with a 100% loss rate.
Bank earnings season started today. Three people decided to get creative with it. None of them were creative in the right direction.
One of them shorted the biggest bank in the country. The morning before it beat estimates. Again.
Here's what we've got today:🏆 A full send on Delta calls. The earnings were not, in fact, priced in.
🏆 JPM puts before earnings. $68K on a four-word thesis.
📉 A Pump.fun custom-pair token that lasted 22 minutes.
⚡ 50x long XRP. Liquidated in 19 minutes.
🤣 Dumb memes from the trenches.
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| TODAY'S DAMAGE REPORT 📊 | |||||
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Not SpaceX. Not Tesla. Smaller.
It's not SpaceX. It's not Tesla, Starlink or Neuralink.
You don't need an IPO allocation to own it. Anyone with a brokerage account can buy it for about $14 a share.
Yet SpaceX's name is right there in its paperwork.
Dylan Jovine believes the second wave of Space Millionaires starts December 8th... right here.
LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆
Every day we crown one person who made the worst financial decision on the internet.
Today's winner bet against JPMorgan Chase on the morning of its Q3 earnings report. The thesis was four words long.
"Banks always disappoint."
Here's the thing. JPMorgan has beaten earnings estimates for nine consecutive quarters. This is not hidden information. It is on every financial website in existence.
u/bank_bear_szn did not check any of them.
He bought 180 JPM $310 weekly put contracts at $3.79 each. Total premium: $68,220.
His reasoning, per his Reddit post: he read a thread about rising loan defaults and concluded JPM would miss. The thread had 14 upvotes. He put $68,220 behind it.
JPMorgan reported Q3 earnings before the open on October 13. EPS: $6.12 vs $5.90 expected. Revenue: $52.1 billion. Stock gapped up 5.7%.
His 180 puts opened at $0.01. He sold them for $180 total. Net loss: $68,040.
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TOTAL RETURN -$68,040.00 ▼ $68,220.00 (-99.74%) All Time 1D 1W 1M 3M ALL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"Banks always disappoint. Loaded puts. Down $68K." Read a thread about rising loan defaults and figured JPM would finally miss. Bought 180 puts at $3.79. They beat by 22 cents. Stock gapped up 5.7% at the open. My puts are worth a penny each. I am going to be late for work. Top comment: "Bro bet against the most profitable bank on Earth without checking the earnings history. This is art."
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| Here's what makes this hall-of-fame level: JPMorgan's last nine quarterly reports all beat EPS estimates. The average beat was 8.4%. The earnings history is on every financial website. It takes thirty seconds to check. He did not spend those thirty seconds. |
He bet against the streak. The streak won. His puts did not.
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TODAY'S CASUALTIES 💀
Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these two gave it a real shot.
Let's run through the tape.
Casualty #1: The Custom Pair Pioneer
Pump.fun launched a new feature on October 9. Custom trading pairs. Brand new tokens can now pair with existing tokens on the platform.
u/defi_frontrunner saw opportunity. He found a token called $BANKSZN, launched the same day, paired with an existing Pump.fun token.
The premise: "bank earnings will crash the market and crypto will pump as a hedge." He put $31,200 into it.
One problem: the token creator had paired $BANKSZN with a token he also controlled. When trading volume spiked, he drained both sides of the liquidity pool.
Twenty-two minutes after launch, $BANKSZN went to zero. The creator's wallet shows $94,000 in outflows.
Our guy's $31,200 became $400. Net loss: $30,800.
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TOKEN VALUE -$30,800.00 ▼ RUGGED - 22 MIN 5M 15M 1H 4H ALL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"Custom pairs are the future of DeFi. I am now $31K poorer." Found $BANKSZN on Pump.fun. New custom pair feature. Paired with an existing token that had volume. Put $31,200 in. Dev drained both sides of the LP in 22 minutes. Top comment: "He called it the future. He was right. His future just doesn't involve that $31K."
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Casualty #2: The Uptober Believer
This one's quick because the trade was quick. Nineteen minutes quick.
u/xrp_maximalist_26 went 50x long XRP at $1.38. Position size: $2,075,000 notional on $41,500 margin.
His thesis? "Uptober week two. The pump is coming."
XRP dropped 3.2% in 19 minutes after October rate-hike probability jumped to 71%.
He was liquidated at $1.352. Total loss: $41,500.
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POSITION VALUE -$41,500.00 ▼ LIQUIDATED - 19 MIN HELD 5M 15M 1H 4H ALL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Quick math on 50x leverage: You control $50 of crypto for every $1 of margin. A 2% move in the wrong direction wipes out 100% of your money. XRP moved 3.2%. He needed it to go up. It went down. That is the entire story. |
His post-liquidation comment: "Uptober is still real. This was just a shakeout."
Brother. You got liquidated. The shakeout shook you out. That is what shakeouts do.
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DUMB MEMES 🤣
Every newsletter needs a meme section. Ours just hits different when you're reading it from a portfolio that's down 99%.
📊→🔍→📉→💸→🔥→📊 (check earnings → find puts → loss → repeat) |
🏦💰→📱🎰→📉→🏕️ (bank earnings → options play → loss → tent) |
Translation: the copium harvest was abundant today. Self-awareness remains in a bear u/bank_bear_szn's October so far
If you laughed, you're coping. If you didn't laugh, you're probably in the screenshots.
See you tomorrow. Same losses. Different people. Exact same mistakes.
