GM. This is Dumb Money Daily — where your worst trade is someone else's content.
Warsh's first FOMC meeting was yesterday. He held rates, torched forward guidance, and dropped a hawkish dot plot on the market. The Dow fell 507 points. Bitcoin dropped below $64,000.
Uniswap gapped up 22% on a Standard Chartered note. One person had puts.
Combined damage: $277,000. Here's what we've got today:
🏆 Loss of the Day — Bought UNI puts the night before Standard Chartered's 22% gap-up call.: $147,400
💀 Casualty #1 — 100x SOL long on FOMC day. Warsh was not market-friendly.: $63,200
💀 Casualty #2 — Bought La-Z-Boy puts before earnings. Retail sales +11%. Stock +16%.: $29,100
💀 Casualty #3 — Bought SPCX calls at $206 to "buy the dip." Dip kept going.: $37,300
📊 Today by the Numbers — The stats that make your portfolio look responsible
🍩 Copium for the Road — The best comments from today's wreckage
🤣 Dumb Memes — Because laughter is free (unlike these trades)
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| TODAY’S DAMAGE REPORT 📊 | |||||||||
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LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆
Every day we crown one person who made the single worst financial decision on the internet.
Today’s winner bet against a coin right before a major bank told the world to buy it.
Here’s the setup.
Uniswap had been grinding sideways for weeks. Volume down. DeFi sentiment soft. The Warsh dot plot was bearish for all risk assets. The case for selling UNI was reasonable.
u/uni_is_done_bro made the case. He made it with $147,400 in puts.
He bought them on Tuesday evening, June 17, after the FOMC decision. His read: Warsh kills rate cut hopes, risk assets bleed, UNI leads the altcoin selloff.
At 11:22 p.m. the same night, Standard Chartered published a research note. Their target for Uniswap: up 22% from current levels. The note went wide on crypto Twitter within the hour.
UNI opened Wednesday up 4.3%. By noon it was up 22.1%.
He built a $147,400 put position on the same evening Standard Chartered published a buy note.
He did not see the note. He found out about it when his brokerage sent a margin alert at 8:47 a.m.
His post: “I don’t think it’s fair that analyst notes can come out at 11pm.”
They can. They do. They always have.
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The top reply: “The note was at 11:22 p.m. You placed your order at 10:15 p.m. You had 67 minutes.”
He replied: “I was watching the FOMC recap.”
The FOMC recap did not mention UNI. The Standard Chartered note did.
| 🧠 WTF is Uniswap? Uniswap (UNI) is the governance token of Uniswap, the largest decentralized exchange on Ethereum. It does not give holders a direct claim on revenue — it’s a governance vote, not a cash-flow instrument. Despite this, it trades like a high-beta crypto asset: sensitive to DeFi sentiment, macro risk appetite, and analyst coverage. When Standard Chartered publishes a target implying 22% upside on a token, DeFi traders buy first and ask questions later. Puts on UNI the night of a hawkish FOMC were reasonable. Puts on UNI the same night Standard Chartered published a bullish note were not. |
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TODAY'S CASUALTIES 💀
Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these three gave it a real shot.
Let’s run through the tape.
Casualty #1: The Warsh Optimist
The conventional read going into the FOMC: Warsh is a market-friendly pragmatist. He would hold. He would signal flexibility. Stocks would rally.
u/warsh_will_pivot read the conventional wisdom and opened a 100x long on Solana perpetuals at 9:48 a.m., one hour before the decision.
Here’s what Warsh actually did.
He held rates and rewrote the Fed’s entire communication framework. The dot plot showed 9 of 18 officials now expected a hike. He eliminated forward guidance entirely. His statement was 114 words.
The market lost $420 billion in 30 minutes.
He was 100x long on Solana when the Fed delivered the most hawkish hold in recent memory.
SOL fell 6.2% in the hour after the decision. At 100x leverage, that is not a 6.2% loss.
His liquidation notification arrived at 2:41 p.m. His post arrived at 2:43 p.m.: “I should have read more than the headline.”
The headline said “hold.” The dot plot said something different.
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Casualty #2: The La-Z-Boy Thesis
The consumer is stretched. Everyone knows it. Retail sales have been soft. Furniture is a discretionary purchase. La-Z-Boy, specifically, is the kind of brand that struggles when people tighten their belts.
u/lzb_puts_easy sold u/lzb_puts_easy himself on this. He bought puts before earnings.
Here’s what La-Z-Boy reported.
Retail sales up 11% in the fiscal fourth quarter. Gross margins improved. The stock gapped up 16% before the open.
For context: retail sales nationally came in at +0.9% month-over-month in May, beating expectations. The consumer is not as stretched as the thesis required.
He bet against a furniture company the quarter it reported its best retail sales in years.
His puts expired worthless. He did not own a La-Z-Boy. He does now consider this ironic.
Total damage: $29,100.
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Casualty #3: SPCX, Round Two
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135. Hit $176 intraday. Closed at $161. Then ran to $225 over the following week.
Then a former Nasdaq executive was quoted saying SPCX “is not trading on fundamentals.”
The stock pulled back to $206.
u/spcx_dip_buyer saw a 9% pullback from the high on a rocket company with a Bitcoin treasury and a $2 trillion valuation. He called it a dip.
He bought $37,300 in calls at $206, expiring in two weeks.
Here’s the thing about “not trading on fundamentals.”
It means the stock will continue to not trade on fundamentals — in either direction. It went to $200. Then $194. The calls, priced for a bounce, lost value on each leg.
He bought calls on a stock someone just described as disconnected from its fundamentals, expecting it to immediately reconnect.
By day three, the calls were down 71%. He is still holding them.
His comment: “SpaceX is still going to Mars. Mars is real.”
Mars is real. $194 is also real.
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TODAY BY THE NUMBERS 📊
We track the data because the data is funnier than anything we could make up.
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Warsh’s statement was 114 words. The Fed has not communicated in 114 words since the early 2000s. Every one of those words cost someone money.
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BITE-SIZED COPIUM FOR THE ROAD 🍩
The best part of any loss thread isn't the screenshot. It's the comments.
Here are today's greatest hits.
| • | “I don’t think it’s fair that analyst notes can come out at 11pm.” They always have. They will continue to. The market does not have business hours. — u/uni_is_done_bro |
| • | “I should have read more than the headline.” The headline said hold. The dot plot said 9 of 18 members want a hike. These are both true. The dot plot is also a headline. — u/warsh_will_pivot |
| • | “The consumer bought La-Z-Boys. I don’t understand it.” May retail sales came in at +0.9%, beating expectations. The consumer bought things. La-Z-Boy was among them. — u/lzb_puts_easy |
| • | “Mars is real.” It is. The calls expire in 11 days. Mars is not on that timeline. — u/spcx_dip_buyer |
Translation: four people had four different explanations for why the market was wrong. The market did not read any of them.
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DUMB MEMES 🤣
Every newsletter needs a meme section.
Ours hits differently when Warsh condensed 14 years of forward guidance into 114 words and four people lost money.
u/uni_is_done_bro’s 67-minute window, unused | |
Warsh’s 114 words, annotated |
If you laughed, you read the dot plot.
If you winced, you have ever typed “Mars is real” into a loss post.
See you tomorrow. Juneteenth is Friday. Markets are closed. The dot plot does not take days off.
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