GM. This is Dumb Money, the only financial newsletter with a 100% loss rate.
The Fed hiked rates for the first time in three years. The market rallied. The shorts got liquidated. The call buyers got vaporized. Somehow, everybody lost.
$263,000 in combined losses across Reddit, crypto Twitter, and one brokerage account that no longer exists.
Three stories. Three different ways to turn conviction into a margin call.
Here's what we've got today:
🏆 Loss of the Day - A short seller who bet against the wrong generator company. 31% gap up. Margin call.: $131,040
📉 Casualty #1 - COIN call options bought one day before the Senate killed the CLARITY Act.: $84,000
⚡ Casualty #2 - A Bitcoin short, 20x leveraged, liquidated by a post-Fed relief rally in 47 minutes.: $47,500
📊 Today by the Numbers - The data on today's carnage.
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| TODAY'S DAMAGE REPORT 📊 | |||||||||
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While the world panicked, these investors got paid
Since Feb 28th, the S&P has slid -4.1%.
But the people invested in the Patriot Income Plan (P.I.P.)...
They barely noticed.
While the world panicked over "World War III"
Their distributions kept arriving. On schedule. In full. Some have collected 15+ separate payouts during the three months of war.
And their portfolios? The average partnership inside P.I.P. has gained 7.2% during this conflict. The best performer rose 15.3%.
That's the difference between owning stocks and owning infrastructure.
Stocks trade on fear. Infrastructure collects fees on every molecule of oil and gas that moves through America, war or peace, boom or bust.
And that's exactly what P.I.P. is.
A way for you to own critical infrastructure that pays you whether America is at war or not.
With unit prices cooling from wartime highs, today may be the best entry point in months. The next P.I.P. payout is days away.
P.S. Since 2020, the average partnership in P.I.P. has produced 20% avg. annual gains. That's in addition to the 10% yield. One investor already collects $4,800 a month. Another hasn't worked in years. Show me something better. I'll wait. [Enroll in P.I.P. →]
LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆
Every day we crown one person who made the worst financial decision on the internet.
Today's winner didn't buy the wrong thing. He sold the right thing at the worst possible time.
Here's the setup. A trader on r/wallstreetbets had been short Generac for weeks. The thesis: overvalued industrial stock, slowing housing market, no catalyst on the horizon.
Short interest on GNRC had climbed 30% in the most recent reporting period. 2.66 million shares sold short. 4.5% of the float.
Our guy was one of them. 3,000 shares shorted at $176.12.
Then Amazon announced a $2.4 billion data-center backup generator deal with Generac. After hours. On a Wednesday.
The stock gapped up 31% at the open. His broker didn't wait for him to pick up the phone.
Margin call. Forced cover at $219.80. Realized loss: $131,040 in one pre-market session.
For context: Generac had been a boring stock for months. A generator company. Nobody was watching it. That's what made it feel safe to short.
One 8-K filing changed everything. The deal could expand to $8 billion. Amazon also got warrants to buy 1.69 million Generac shares at $200.93 each.
The stock finished at $207.23. Its best session ever. His worst session ever.
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| Quick math on short selling for non-traders: When you short a stock, you borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back cheaper. Your maximum gain is 100% if the stock goes to zero. Your maximum loss is unlimited. A 31% overnight gap means you wake up owing your broker more than you budgeted for the position. |
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TODAY'S CASUALTIES 💀
Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these two gave it a real shot.
Let's run through the tape.
Casualty #1: The CLARITY Act Bet
There's a trade that appeared on r/options about a hundred times in the week before September 15. Buy COIN calls. The CLARITY Act passes. Coinbase moons.
One problem: the CLARITY Act did not pass.
The Senate voted 49-50 on the procedural motion. Eleven votes short of the 60 needed. The crypto regulatory framework that was supposed to unlock the next bull run died on the floor.
COIN dropped 10.1% in a single session. Worst day since June.
Our trader had bought 150 COIN $200 calls expiring September 19. Total premium paid: $84,000.
Every contract was out of the money by the close of September 15 and stayed there. All 150 expired worthless four days later.
Here's the thing. Polymarket had the vote at 52% to pass. But spending $84,000 on weekly options ahead of a binary Senate vote is not an investment. It's a coin flip with an 84-grand entry fee.
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| Weekly options and binary events: Weekly options expire in days, not months. Their value decays fast and collapses on the wrong side of a yes/no event. Buying them ahead of a Senate vote means the outcome has to arrive fast and in the right direction. |
Casualty #2: The Post-Fed Short
This one is quick because the position was quick. Forty-seven minutes quick.
On September 16, the Fed hiked rates 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The Dow dropped 600 points. Bitcoin slid to $75,850.
Our trader saw blood. At 11:00 AM ET on September 17, he opened a 20x short on BTC at $75,900. Margin: $47,500.
His thesis: first rate hike in three years means risk assets go lower. Crypto is a risk asset. Short it.
But the market was already flipping. Oil fell. Yields dropped. Bitcoin rallied past $77,000.
His liquidation price was $79,700. BTC hit it at 11:47 AM ET. $47,500, gone in 47 minutes.
86,816 traders were liquidated across crypto that day. $345 million in total. He was one of them.
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He is now long Bitcoin again. Some lessons take more than one tuition payment.
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TODAY BY THE NUMBERS 📊
We track the data because the data is funnier than anything we could make up.
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The correlation between conviction and portfolio destruction remains at all-time highs.
We've said it before. Having a thesis is not a risk management strategy. A thesis tells you why. A stop loss tells you when. One of them keeps you in the game.
See you tomorrow. The numbers will be different. The behavior won't be.
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