GM. This is Dumb Money — the support group your portfolio didn't know it needed.
Today's edition features a wallet that bet $102.6 million against Bitcoin at 40x leverage, a sneaker stock that tripped on its own earnings call, and a hardware wallet hack that proved self-custody has a sequel nobody wanted.
Three stories. Three different ways to lose money. One universal lesson that nobody will learn. Here's what we've got today:
🏆 Loss of the Day — A $102.6 million 40x short on Bitcoin. Liquidation price: one bad candle away.: $348,800
📉 Casualty #1 — Weekly calls before earnings. Revenue missed by 2.8%. The calls are worth pennies.: $66,300
🔒 Casualty #2 — A firmware bug stole $1.8M in Bitcoin from a hardware wallet. No keys required.: $1,801,440
📊 Today by the Numbers — The data on today's carnage. It is worse than you think.
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Immediately after secretly redacting 750 White House files behind closed doors…
President Donald J. Trump wrote a check worth $300 million of his own money and strangely enough… didn't utter a single word about it to the cameras.
Even more fascinating, it turns out, Trump's not acting alone…
If you follow the money trail…
Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates… even an up-and-coming tech titan who the late Charlie Munger referred to as, "the new emperor of the world"… have all poured billions into the same area.
LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆
Every day we crown one person who made the worst financial decision on the internet.
Today's winner isn't a person. It's a wallet. Specifically, one address on a crypto derivatives exchange.
Here's the setup. Someone created a brand-new wallet in early August. Deposited $2.44 million in USDC. And immediately opened a 40x leveraged short on 1,600 Bitcoin.
The total position size: $102.6 million. Against Bitcoin. At 40x.
The liquidation price was $64,888. Bitcoin was trading at $63,982. That's a $906 cushion on a hundred-million-dollar bet.
A 1.4% move in the wrong direction would have vaporized the entire position.
Bitcoin drifted sideways for a few days. The wallet looked like a genius.
Then BTC started climbing. It touched $63,500. Then $63,900. The liquidation price got closer with every candle.
The wallet panicked. Started closing chunks of the position to push the liquidation price higher. The remaining position: $98.97 million. Still short. Still leveraged. Still one rally away from one of the largest single liquidations this exchange has ever processed.
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What 40x leverage actually means: for every $1 of your own money, you're controlling $40 of exposure. A 2.5% move against you wipes out 100% of your capital. This wallet had $2.44 million backing a $102.6 million position. The margin for error was 1.4%.
No tweets from the wallet. No Reddit posts. No Discord alpha channel. Just $2.44 million, a 40x button, and the kind of conviction that history tends to punish.
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TODAY'S CASUALTIES 💀
Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these two gave it a real shot.
Let's run through the tape.
Casualty #1: The "Sneakers Only Go Up" Guy
CloudStride Athletics makes running shoes. Nice ones. The kind you see on every person in a Whole Foods parking lot.
One problem: the stock doesn't always run in the same direction as the shoes.
u/cloudfoam_calls bought 850 weekly call contracts on $ONON at the $42 strike. Cost basis: $0.79 per contract. Total outlay: $67,150.
The thesis was simple. $ONON had beaten earnings three quarters in a row. Momentum was there.
Here's the thing. Q2 revenue came in at $1.05 billion. Wall Street expected $1.08 billion. That's a 2.8% miss.
The stock dropped 20% in a single session. From $38.78 to $30.91.
Those $42 calls expired at $0.01. Total loss: $66,300.
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They were. Until they weren't. That's kind of how growth stocks work.
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Casualty #2: The "Self-Custody Is Safer" Guy
This one hurts differently. Because the person did everything right.
Bought a hardware wallet from Ironclad, a well-regarded name in Bitcoin self-custody. Kept his keys offline. Never touched a hot wallet.
On July 30th, an attacker exploited a five-year-old firmware bug. The bug allowed brute-forcing of weakly generated seed phrases without ever touching the physical device.
In 25 minutes, 594 BTC vanished from 500 wallets. Total damage over four days: 1,816 BTC across 5,200 addresses. That's $116 million.
u/cold_storage_cope lost 28.1 BTC. At the time, roughly $1.8 million. He'd held through the 2022 crash, through every exchange collapse, through every dip. Three years of diamond hands, gone in a sweep window.
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What happened with the firmware: a build flag weakened the randomness used to generate seed phrases. An attacker figured out how to guess those weak seeds remotely. No phishing email. No malware. The device itself produced keys that were too predictable.
His entire post was four words: "How is this possible." No question mark. Not really a question.
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TODAY BY THE NUMBERS 📊
We track the data because the data is funnier than anything we could make up.
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Every story today had the same ingredient: certainty.
The whale was certain Bitcoin would drop. The $ONON caller was certain earnings would beat. The hardware wallet guy was certain his coins were safe. Certainty is the most expensive asset in finance. Nobody sells it to you. You manufacture it yourself.
See you tomorrow. The numbers will be different. The behavior won't be.
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