$354,020 Lost. Zero SEC Filings Read

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Every day we crown one person who made the worst financial decision on the internet.

Today's winner thought he was buying the next generational stock. He was buying a rocket company at $218 a share.

Here's the setup.

OrbitalDyne IPO'd on June 12 at $135. By June 16 it hit $225.64. The entire internet was screaming "generational wealth."

u/rocket_to_the_moon_69 saw the momentum. He sold his index funds. All of them.

He put $327,600 into $ORBX at an average price of $218.40 a share.

One problem: OrbitalDyne had never reported earnings as a public company. Nobody knew what the financials looked like. The thesis was vibes.

Eight weeks later, OrbitalDyne reported Q2 results. Revenue of $7.8 billion crushed the $6.8 billion estimate. Loss per share beat expectations.

But buried in the filing: $16 billion in cash burn in a single quarter. $25 billion year to date. On pace for $50 billion by December.

The stock dropped another 10.4% the next morning. $ORBX closed the week at $114.92.

His 1,500 shares are now worth $172,380 — down $155,220 in eight weeks. A 47.4% loss on money that was in index funds two months ago.

For context on the cash burn: the company spent $16 billion in Q2 alone — nearly twice what it burned in Q1. That puts it on pace for $50 billion for the year. The entire Apollo program cost roughly $257 billion in today's dollars. This company is on track to spend a fifth of that in twelve months.

The index funds are doing great, by the way. They don't miss him.

Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these two gave it a real shot. Let's run through the tape.

PantheonAI was up 109% on the year. Eight straight earnings beats, and the stock kept climbing. u/ai_is_a_bubble_bro saw a bubble.

His thesis: AI is a bubble. $PNTH trades at 255x forward earnings. The ninth earnings report would finally be the one where reality catches up.

He bought 400 $PNTH $110 put contracts at $3.16 each. Total position: $126,400.

Then PantheonAI reported. Revenue up 48%. U.S. commercial revenue up 93%. Full-year guidance raised by $250 million.

The stock surged 7% in a single session. His puts went to zero.

For context: $PNTH short sellers lost $3 billion aggregate that day. Our guy was one of them.

Quick math on put options for non-options people: a put gives you the right to sell a stock at a set price. If the stock goes above that price, the put is worthless. At 255x earnings and a 7% gap up, being "right about the valuation" and being "profitable" are two very different things.

u/onchain_oracle_eth had a thesis. ETH at $3,500 was overvalued. The macro was bearish. Geopolitical negotiations were going nowhere.

He opened a 25x leveraged short on Ethereum. Deposited $72,400 in margin on Hyperliquid.

Here's the thing. At 25x leverage, a 4% move against you is total liquidation. That's not a margin of error. That's the absence of one.

ETH rose 4.1% to $3,644 over the next six hours. He was liquidated at hour six.

$72,400. Gone. The on-chain receipt is public. Hyperliquid does not care about your thesis.

He posted a 900-word thread about why the liquidation was actually "the protocol working as intended." He is correct. That does not help.

We track the data because the data is funnier than anything we could make up.

The correlation between "I did my own research" and "I lost everything" remains at all-time highs.

Every story today has one thing in common: the trade was placed before the data arrived. $ORBX hadn't reported yet. $PNTH hadn't reported yet. ETH hadn't finished its 4% move yet. Conviction without information is just gambling with extra steps.

See you tomorrow. The numbers will be different. The behavior won't be.