GM. This is Dumb Money, the only financial newsletter with a 100% loss rate.
Friday's jobs report was supposed to crash the market. It did the opposite. And the people who bet against it are having a very bad weekend.
Three stories stood out. One involves 0DTE puts. One involves an exchange hack. One involves a guy who launched his own memecoin and still lost money.
Here's what we've got today:
🏆 $161,300 in 0DTE puts on jobs day. The jobs report disagreed.
📉 $87,400 on Bitget. Then the exchange got hacked.
⚡ Launched his own memecoin. Got rugged by nobody buying it.
📊 The data on today's carnage. It is worse than you think.
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| TODAY'S DAMAGE REPORT 📊 | |||||
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Trump Goes "All-In" on Grand Canyon Energy Breakthrough
On July 4th, Washington killed the tax credits for solar, wind and EVs.
One energy source got the opposite.
Eight years of credits. Right alongside oil and nuclear.
It's the well a crew hit near the Grand Canyon. Almost 8X the output of Saudi Arabia's biggest oil well.
Google's in. Gates is in.
On October 20th, the feds auction 83 new parcels for it.
One company owns the entire chain. Get in before the gavel drops.
LOSS OF THE DAY 🏆
Every day we crown one person who made the worst financial decision on the internet.
Today's winner didn't just bet wrong. He bet wrong on a coin flip where he could see both sides.
Here's the setup. The September jobs report dropped Friday morning.
Every economist on Twitter was calling for a strong print. Rate hike fears were back.
u/recession_is_here_26 saw this as a lock. He loaded up on SPY $755 puts. Zero days to expiry. $161,300 worth.
His thesis was simple. Strong jobs data. Fed stays hawkish. Market sells off.
One problem: the jobs report came in at 29,000 new jobs. Economists expected 84,000. It wasn't even close.
The market didn't sell off. It rallied. Hard. Traders priced in a Fed pause and bought everything in sight.
His $161,300 in puts went to zero by close.
He posted the P&L screenshot at 4:07pm with the caption: "the jobs report was rigged."
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DAY P&L -$161,300.00 ▼ $161,300.00 (-100%) Today 1H 4H 1D 1W ALL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"the jobs report was rigged" Bought 430 SPY $755 puts at open. Every single analyst said jobs would come in hot. Fed was going to stay hawkish. This was the most obvious trade of the year. 29,000 jobs. Twenty-nine thousand. Who is only hiring 29,000 people? Top comment: "The economy, apparently."
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| What 0DTE means for non-options people: Zero days to expiry. You buy the option and it expires the same day. If the market doesn't move in your direction by 4pm, you lose 100% of what you put in. There is no holding overnight. There is no "it'll come back tomorrow." The clock runs out and your money is gone. |
Brother. The data came out. It said the opposite of what you needed. That's not rigged. That's a coin flip you lost.
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TODAY'S CASUALTIES 💀
Not everybody can be Loss of the Day. But these two gave it a real shot.
Let's run through the tape.
Casualty #1: The "CEXs Are Safe Now" Guy
Here's the thing about keeping all your crypto on one exchange. It works right up until it doesn't.
u/self_custody_is_hard kept $87,400 in crypto on Bitget. All of it. Bitcoin, ETH, stablecoins. One account. One exchange. No hardware wallet.
His reasoning? "FTX was two years ago. Exchanges are regulated now."
On September 24, attackers spoofed Bitget's backend infrastructure and drained approximately $350 million from the exchange's hot wallets across five blockchains.
His $87,400 was in those hot wallets. All of it. Frozen.
Bitget has pledged full reimbursement from their $464 million protection fund. But as of this writing, the timeline is "soon."
Translation: soon means nobody knows.
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ACCOUNT VALUE -$87,400.00 ▼ FROZEN - WITHDRAWAL DISABLED 1D 1W 1M ALL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"My life savings are on an exchange that got hacked. AMA." $87,400 across BTC, ETH, and USDC. All on Bitget. I know. I know. Everyone told me to get a hardware wallet. I said exchanges are safer now. Top comment: "The A in AMA stands for anything except why you didn't use a hardware wallet."
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| Quick note on exchange custody for non-crypto people: When your crypto sits on an exchange, you don't hold the private keys. The exchange does. If the exchange gets hacked, your funds go with it. A $50 hardware wallet would have prevented this entirely. |
He had two years of exchange hack headlines to learn from. Mt. Gox. FTX. WazirX. He decided those were other people's problems.
Casualty #2: The Guy Who Launched His Own Memecoin
This one's different. Usually we cover people who bought the wrong coin. This guy made the wrong coin.
u/tokenomics_wizard created a Solana memecoin on Pump.fun called $BAGHOLDR. Put $28,400 of his own money in to seed the liquidity pool.
His marketing plan: a Twitter account with 47 followers. One Reddit post. A Telegram group with 12 members, 9 of which were bots.
The token launched. It pumped 40% in the first three minutes.
It was not working. A sniper bot front-ran the launch, bought the initial pump, and dumped within four minutes.
The bot made $2,100. Everyone else lost money.
Including the dev. Especially the dev.
The token is now at $0.0000003. Total 24-hour volume: $0.41.
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TOTAL RETURN -$28,400.00 ▼ $28,400.00 (-99.99%) All Time 1H 4H 1D 1W ALL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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He posted the chart with the caption: "I am the dev and I got rugged by my own coin."
You can't get rugged by your own coin. What happened is worse. Nobody wanted it.
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TODAY BY THE NUMBERS 📊
We track the data because the data is funnier than anything we could make up.
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The correlation between self-confidence in a macro call and the size of the resulting loss remains statistically perfect.
We've been tracking this for weeks. Every 0DTE buyer who uses the word "guaranteed" or "lock" in their post loses the full position. Every one. The win rate is 0%.
See you tomorrow. The numbers will be different. The behavior won't be.
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